Summary
Here’s a thumbnail summary of what transpired in 2014, as
compared to 2013:
- Based on the number of reviews posted, and assuming that a relatively constant percentage of readers review books, there was a substantial increase in readership from 2013 to 2014 (47%). This does not support the belief that e-book readership has plateaued - indeed it implies that e-book adoption continues apace.
- Indies continued to make incremental gains in both titles in the top 100, and in readership (about a 40% increase in each).
- The Big Five Trads seem to have lost some considerable ground (17 fewer titles in the Top 100) to smaller Trads (up 10 titles) and Indies (up 7 titles). Readership for the Big Five was up 18%, while it was up over 300% for smaller Trads and 40% for Indies. Hachette and Random House lost the most ground, relatively speaking.
- The Big Five still predominate at the top of the list, but the smaller Trads made big inroads in all four quartiles, in both titles and readership . Indies have come to dominate the bottom quartile now, though they have some representation in the higher ranks as well.
- There is some evidence that the Power Law function flattened between 2013 and 2014, that is it was less hit-driven. It is worth noting that the top book of 2014 did not stand out from the pack in nearly the same way that it did in 2013.
- The proportion of women writers slipped a bit from 2013 to 2014, with most of that slippage being in the Big Five Trads. However, females had more readers per title than males.
- Indie writers in the Top 100 were mostly female in 2013, but in 2014 they were exclusively female.
- The Big Five Trads appear to be following a two track pricing strategy, aiming to dominate the high end and competing ferociously in the low end. Their readership was up substantially in those price ranges, but collapsed in the middle price range. Indies continue to sell at lower price points.
- Though smaller Trads were more evenly spread out, a case could be made that publishers are deserting the middle ground. Perhaps this is further evidence in favor of Thomas Piketty's thesis of the disappearing middle class, being played out on a smaller scale.
- The most popular Kindle books are still almost exclusively fiction, Indie or Trad. This held true in 2014 and 2015. Readership growth was about the same in both groups, when expressed as a year over year percentage.
- The highest selling Indies were almost all in the Romance category, in 2014. The Big Five Trads, on the other hand, lost ground in the Romance category. Trads still dominate Thrillers and Literary Fiction. Readership for Literary Fiction was up dramatically. Thrilller/Suspense also saw good gains, while Romance lagged overall.
Details, Part 2
Pricing, by Publisher
Type
Looking at price ranges, I have categorized prices into
three ranges: low (under $4.00), moderate ($4.00 to $7.99) and high (over
$8.00). Note that these prices are those
posted on the Top 100 list. If one
brings up the books at any given point in time, the prices will often be
different, given the dynamic pricing of both Amazon and individual
publishers. I have to make the
assumption that Amazon selected some representative price for their Top 100
list, though.
As the table shows, traditional publishers seem to have
re-oriented their pricing strategy to a high-low strategy. They had far fewer books in the middle
category in 2014 than in 2013, but many more in the high price range. The same was true for the number of readers
they had in each group. Overall, their
readership growth was smaller than the other groups, but the strategy may have
been a good revenue generator, due to
the considerable growth in the high price category.
The smaller Trads also saw a very big increase in readership
in the low and high priced categories and a smaller increase in the moderate
category. Indies saw fairly equal growth
in the low and moderate categories, with no books in the high price range.
Titles, Reviews and
Imputed Readership
|
|
|
Count of Title
|
Num Amazon Reviews
|
Est Num Readers
|
|||
|
Publisher1
|
Price2
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
BPH
|
1-Low
|
15
|
17
|
20,086
|
50,653
|
4,017,200
|
10,130,600
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
41
|
9
|
74,595
|
23,125
|
14,919,000
|
4,625,000
|
|
|
3-High
|
17
|
30
|
24,848
|
67,817
|
4,969,600
|
13,563,400
|
|
BPH
Total
|
73
|
56
|
119,529
|
141,595
|
23,905,800
|
28,319,000
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
1-Low
|
1
|
5
|
1,521
|
12,342
|
304,200
|
2,468,400
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
7
|
7
|
10,627
|
18,161
|
2,125,400
|
3,632,200
|
|
|
3-High
|
1
|
7
|
1,728
|
25,646
|
345,600
|
5,129,200
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
9
|
19
|
13,876
|
56,149
|
2,775,200
|
11,229,800
|
|
|
Indie
|
1-Low
|
14
|
21
|
15,361
|
19,617
|
3,072,200
|
3,923,400
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
4
|
4
|
4,392
|
7,846
|
878,400
|
1,569,200
|
|
Indie
Total
|
18
|
25
|
19,753
|
27,463
|
3,950,600
|
5,492,600
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
|
All
|
1-Low
|
30
|
43
|
36,968
|
82,612
|
7,393,600
|
16,522,400
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
52
|
20
|
89,614
|
49,132
|
17,922,800
|
9,826,400
|
|
|
3-High
|
18
|
37
|
26,576
|
93,463
|
5,315,200
|
18,692,600
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
Year to Year Change
|
|
|
Count of Title
|
Num Amazon Reviews
|
Est Num Readers
|
|||
|
Publisher1
|
Price2
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
|
BPH
|
1-Low
|
2
|
13%
|
30,567
|
152%
|
6,113,400
|
152%
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
-32
|
-78%
|
-51,470
|
-69%
|
-10,294,000
|
-69%
|
|
|
3-High
|
13
|
76%
|
42,969
|
173%
|
8,593,800
|
173%
|
|
BPH
Total
|
-17
|
-23%
|
22,066
|
18%
|
4,413,200
|
18%
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
1-Low
|
4
|
400%
|
10,821
|
711%
|
2,164,200
|
711%
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
0
|
0%
|
7,534
|
71%
|
1,506,800
|
71%
|
|
|
3-High
|
6
|
600%
|
23,918
|
1384%
|
4,783,600
|
1384%
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
10
|
111%
|
42,273
|
305%
|
8,454,600
|
305%
|
|
|
Indie
|
1-Low
|
7
|
50%
|
4,256
|
28%
|
851,200
|
28%
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
0
|
0%
|
3,454
|
79%
|
690,800
|
79%
|
|
Indie
Total
|
7
|
39%
|
7,710
|
39%
|
1,542,000
|
39%
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
|
All
|
1-Low
|
13
|
43%
|
45,644
|
123%
|
9,128,800
|
123%
|
|
|
2-Mod
|
-32
|
-62%
|
-40,482
|
-45%
|
-8,096,400
|
-45%
|
|
|
3-High
|
19
|
106%
|
66,887
|
252%
|
13,377,400
|
252%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
Fiction vs Non-fiction, by Publisher Type
As you can plainly see, the Top 100 list was dominated by
fiction in both years. The growth in
readership between the two years was very similar for fiction and non-fiction.
Titles, Reviews and Imputed Readership
|
Publisher1
|
Fict_or_NF
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
BPH
|
Fiction
|
71
|
55
|
116,823
|
139,399
|
23,364,600
|
27,879,800
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
2
|
1
|
2,706
|
2,196
|
541,200
|
439,200
|
|
BPH
Total
|
73
|
56
|
119,529
|
141,595
|
23,905,800
|
28,319,000
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
Fiction
|
8
|
16
|
10,980
|
47,426
|
2,196,000
|
9,485,200
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
1
|
3
|
2,896
|
8,723
|
579,200
|
1,744,600
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
9
|
19
|
13,876
|
56,149
|
2,775,200
|
11,229,800
|
|
|
Indie
|
Fiction
|
17
|
25
|
18,409
|
27,463
|
3,681,800
|
5,492,600
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
1
|
1,344
|
268,800
|
|
||
|
Indie
Total
|
18
|
25
|
19,753
|
27,463
|
3,950,600
|
5,492,600
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
|
Indie
|
Fiction
|
96
|
96
|
146,212
|
214,288
|
29,242,400
|
42,857,600
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
4
|
4
|
6,946
|
10,919
|
1,389,200
|
2,183,800
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
Year to Year Change
|
|
|
Count of Title
|
Num Amazon Reviews
|
Est Num Readers
|
|||
|
Publisher1
|
Fict_or_NF
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
|
BPH
|
Fiction
|
-16
|
-23%
|
22,576
|
19%
|
4,515,200
|
19%
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
-1
|
-50%
|
-510
|
-19%
|
-102,000
|
-19%
|
|
BPH
Total
|
-17
|
-23%
|
22,066
|
18%
|
4,413,200
|
18%
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
Fiction
|
8
|
100%
|
36,446
|
332%
|
7,289,200
|
332%
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
2
|
200%
|
5,827
|
201%
|
1,165,400
|
201%
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
10
|
111%
|
42,273
|
305%
|
8,454,600
|
305%
|
|
|
Indie
|
Fiction
|
8
|
47%
|
9,054
|
49%
|
1,810,800
|
49%
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
-1
|
-100%
|
-1,344
|
-100%
|
-268,800
|
-100%
|
|
Indie
Total
|
7
|
39%
|
7,710
|
39%
|
1,542,000
|
39%
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
|
Indie
|
Fiction
|
0
|
0%
|
68,076
|
47%
|
13,615,200
|
47%
|
|
|
Non-fiction
|
0
|
0%
|
3,973
|
57%
|
794,600
|
57%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
Genre, by Publisher
Type
Genre is a very important category, to readers, writers and
publishers. I have used Amazon’s own
categorizations to come up with the genres below, with some simplifications to
keep the list relatively compact.
Perhaps the most remarkable change is the big jump in the
category “LitFic” (literary fiction), which increased dramatically in reviews
and imputed readership, nearly tripling.
The “Thriller/Suspense” category also had quite a jump in readership, as
did “SFF” (Science Fiction and Fantasy).
Romance had a significant drop in the number of titles in the top 100,
and only a small increase in readership.
For the traditional publishers (Big 5 and the smaller
publishers), LitFic was a big gainer. Romance
was down significantly for the Big 5, both in terms of titles and
readership. Indies, on the other hand,
had almost all their titles and readership in the Romance category in 2014.
Titles, Reviews and
Imputed Readership
|
|
|
Count of Title
|
Num Amazon Reviews
|
Est Num Readers
|
|||
|
Publisher1
|
Genre2
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
2013
|
2014
|
|
BPH
|
LitFic
|
10
|
11
|
17,332
|
36,921
|
3,466,400
|
7,384,200
|
|
|
Other
|
3
|
1
|
4,284
|
2,196
|
856,800
|
439,200
|
|
|
Romance
|
29
|
10
|
37,542
|
24,733
|
7,508,400
|
4,946,600
|
|
|
SFF
|
4
|
5
|
10,269
|
18,660
|
2,053,800
|
3,732,000
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
27
|
29
|
50,102
|
59,085
|
10,020,400
|
11,817,000
|
|
BPH
Total
|
73
|
56
|
119,529
|
141,595
|
23,905,800
|
28,319,000
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
LitFic
|
1
|
4
|
1,728
|
15,694
|
345,600
|
3,138,800
|
|
|
Other
|
3
|
5
|
5,853
|
11,770
|
1,170,600
|
2,354,000
|
|
|
Romance
|
4
|
4
|
3,443
|
7,219
|
688,600
|
1,443,800
|
|
|
SFF
|
|
2
|
|
6,642
|
|
1,328,400
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
1
|
4
|
2,852
|
14,824
|
570,400
|
2,964,800
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
9
|
19
|
13,876
|
56,149
|
2,775,200
|
11,229,800
|
|
|
Indie
|
Other
|
1
|
|
1,344
|
|
268,800
|
|
|
|
Romance
|
14
|
24
|
12,270
|
25,507
|
2,454,000
|
5,101,400
|
|
|
SFF
|
3
|
6,139
|
1,227,800
|
|
||
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
|
1
|
|
1,956
|
|
391,200
|
|
Indie
Total
|
18
|
25
|
19,753
|
27,463
|
3,950,600
|
5,492,600
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
|
All
|
LitFic
|
11
|
15
|
19,060
|
52,615
|
3,812,000
|
10,523,000
|
|
|
Other
|
7
|
6
|
11,481
|
13,966
|
2,296,200
|
2,793,200
|
|
|
Romance
|
47
|
38
|
53,255
|
57,459
|
10,651,000
|
11,491,800
|
|
|
SFF
|
7
|
7
|
16,408
|
25,302
|
3,281,600
|
5,060,400
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
28
|
34
|
52,954
|
75,865
|
10,590,800
|
15,173,000
|
|
Grand
Total
|
100
|
100
|
153,158
|
225,207
|
30,631,600
|
45,041,400
|
|
Year to Year Change
|
|
|
Count of Title
|
Num Amazon Reviews
|
Est Num Readers
|
|||
|
Publisher1
|
Genre2
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
Diff
|
Pct Diff
|
|
BPH
|
LitFic
|
1
|
10%
|
19,589
|
113%
|
3,917,800
|
113%
|
|
|
Other
|
-2
|
-67%
|
-2,088
|
-49%
|
-417,600
|
-49%
|
|
|
Romance
|
-19
|
-66%
|
-12,809
|
-34%
|
-2,561,800
|
-34%
|
|
|
SFF
|
1
|
25%
|
8,391
|
82%
|
1,678,200
|
82%
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
2
|
7%
|
8,983
|
18%
|
1,796,600
|
18%
|
|
BPH
Total
|
-17
|
-23%
|
22,066
|
18%
|
4,413,200
|
18%
|
|
|
BPH-S
|
LitFic
|
3
|
300%
|
13,966
|
808%
|
2,793,200
|
808%
|
|
|
Other
|
2
|
67%
|
5,917
|
101%
|
1,183,400
|
101%
|
|
|
Romance
|
0
|
0%
|
3,776
|
110%
|
755,200
|
110%
|
|
|
SFF
|
2
|
#DIV/0!
|
6,642
|
#DIV/0!
|
1,328,400
|
#DIV/0!
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
3
|
300%
|
11,972
|
420%
|
2,394,400
|
420%
|
|
BPH-S
Total
|
10
|
111%
|
42,273
|
305%
|
8,454,600
|
305%
|
|
|
Indie
|
Other
|
-1
|
-100%
|
-1,344
|
-100%
|
-268,800
|
-100%
|
|
|
Romance
|
10
|
71%
|
13,237
|
108%
|
2,647,400
|
108%
|
|
|
SFF
|
-3
|
-100%
|
-6,139
|
-100%
|
-1,227,800
|
-100%
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
1
|
#DIV/0!
|
1,956
|
#DIV/0!
|
391,200
|
#DIV/0!
|
|
Indie
Total
|
7
|
39%
|
7,710
|
39%
|
1,542,000
|
39%
|
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
|
All
|
LitFic
|
4
|
36%
|
33,555
|
176%
|
6,711,000
|
176%
|
|
|
Other
|
-1
|
-14%
|
2,485
|
22%
|
497,000
|
22%
|
|
|
Romance
|
-9
|
-19%
|
4,204
|
8%
|
840,800
|
8%
|
|
|
SFF
|
0
|
0%
|
8,894
|
54%
|
1,778,800
|
54%
|
|
|
Thriller/Suspense/Crime
|
6
|
21%
|
22,911
|
43%
|
4,582,200
|
43%
|
|
Grand
Total
|
0
|
0%
|
72,049
|
47%
|
14,409,800
|
47%
|
|
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