Tuesday, 31 May 2016

What’s Fueling our Future? – A Panel Discussion at the University of Alberta



What’s Fueling our Future? – A Panel Discussion at the University of Alberta


Some weeks back (April 18, 2016),  there was a panel discussion at the University of Alberta, entitled “What’s Fueling our Future?”.   It is part of the Mindshare Series, conversations on “issues that really matter”, and was put on by Universities Canada (formerly known as AUCC).

The panel consisted of:

·        Imre Szeman, University of Alberta, CRC in Cultural Studies with the Petrocultures group.

·        Andreea Strachinescu, with the Directorate General for Energy, European Commission.

·        Junjie Zhang, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego.

·        Thom Mason, director Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee.

The overall topic of the conversation related to Energy, especially the transition from fossil fuels to renewables.  This will, of course, have an impact on the entire globe.  Those impacts will span many perspectives, from technology, science, environment, politics and sociology.

The province of Alberta, Canada is at the nexus of this, as fossil fuel production plays a major role in the province’s economy.  The University of Alberta is a major player in energy research, rates as one of the top ten research universities in energy matters in the world.  So, the U of A is a good location for such a talk.

Below is my summary of the discussion.  I hope it captures the essence of the talk and accurately reflects the speaker's viewpoints.



Speaker 1 - Imre Szeman: From Petroculture to Other Cultures, On the Social Transitions Connected to Energy Transition

Professor Szeman, a Canada Research Chair in Cultural Studies,  is part of group known as Petrocultures, at the University of Alberta, who look at the sociological and cultural aspects of energy.  His talk therefore was a fairly high level look, spanning technical, political, social, scientific and environmental aspects of the question.



So, what is a Petroculture?  Basically, it’s us.  We (especially Canada) are societies organized around fossil fuels.  Most countries are Petrocultures, to one degree or another.  Being a Petroculture relates to physical and environmental issues, but it also relates to the mental habits and attitudes that we have, due to being a petroleum based society.

The professor noted that we are fossil fuels “all the way down”.  Our values are deeply entwined with fossil fuel use, and it has been said that “our freedoms are energy intensive” (Dipesh Cherbratarty).

Energy is part of our “social unconscious”, and that is currently dominated by fossil fuels.  Eventually, we will have to pivot away from this (petroleum is finite, and global warming adds to the urgency), but there will be conflicts over fossil fuel along the way.  Fossil fuels have allowed much bigger populations than previously attainable, and have opened up many options that were not realizable in the past (e.g. easy transportation, commuting as a way of life, intercontinental tourism).  Alternatives are often recognized at the input level (e.g. electric cars vs internal combustion engines), but we will likely have to go much deeper than that – many behaviours will have to change radically (e.g. much less commuting, rather than just transforming the way we commute). 



Fundamentally, he pointed out that in the future, moving away from fossil fuels will imply using less energy overall.  But our deeply ingrained mental habits associate physical and psychological well-being with using lots of energy, so those fundamental mental habits will have to shift.  That mental shift will be hugely contested by the status quo, both the economic forces that benefit from the status quo, but also our own ingrained habits will resist the shift away from Petroculture.



Speaker 2 – Andreea Strachinescu, New Energy Technologies and Innovation, Europe

Andreea Strachinescu is head of the New Energy Technologies and Innovation, Directorate General for Energy, European Commission.

Andreea Strachinescu talked about policies and developments in Europe, regarding their energy transition.  Europe has ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gases, transition to renewables, and integrate their energy systems. 


To begin with, she outlined some major challenges:

  • Europe is still very reliant on fossil fuels.
  • Those fossil fuels are mostly imported.
  • Since 2007, there has been a European policy to replace those with non-imported sources.
  • The use of renewables has increased substantially, but it is still relatively low, relative to targets.
  • There are challenges about variable production of renewables, and how best to integrate them into the existing grid.
  •  There are also issues related to different national priorities and how those can be dealt with, within a common overall European framework.

o   There are historical and traditional economic linkages to consider.
o   There is a lack of existing energy corridors, for an integrated system.
o   Only about 10% of the electricity network is integrated within the European grid.

  • The European Union is expected to continue to require imports, and this will increase in the near future.
  • Natural gas remains a big component of the energy picture.  Liquid natural gas makes up a significant proportion of that.
  • The share that renewables takes care of varies within Europe.  Some countries are much further along, in the energy transition.
  • This variability means there must be flexibility built into the system.
  • Heating and cooling account for about 50% of European energy consumption.  The use of more renewables is planned for these purposes.

  • Two of Europe’s big concerns are:

o   Security of supply.
o   Stability of costs.

  • Climate change is also a major concern, of course.
  • In generally, renewing grids has three aims:

o   Security of supply (i.e. so that non-European countries can’t cut off needed energy imports).
o   Sustainability (so that costs are predictable and supplies are reliable).
o   Competitiveness (so that costs don’t make European economies uncompetitive in comparison with other regions of the world.

  • Targets for 2020:

o   Reduce greenhouse gases by 20%. (on track)
o   Increase renewables by 20%. (on track)
o   Increase energy efficiency by 20%. (not likely, as this requires changes in behaviour, but might hit 17%)



  • Targets for 2030

o   Reduce greenhouse gases by 40%
o   Increase renewables by 27%.
o   Increase efficiency by 27%.

  • Reaching these targets will require a combination of:

o   Reducing the cost of renewables.
o   Integrating them into the system effectively.
o   Changing behaviours, to increase efficiency.

  • Increasing building efficiency will be a major contribution (many old buildings, poorly insulated, rural areas, etc.)
  • Decarbonisation efforts will require new technologies and new processes, behaviours to increase efficiency.
  • Research and innovation will be needed to support these initiatives, especially:

o   Wind
o   Solar
o   Electricity grid integration

  • But, societal efforts are needed to change behaviours of consumers and businesses (e.g. business processes), along with renewable developments and innovations.  This implies the need for :

o   Smart houses.
o   Smart grids.
o   Smart cities.
o   Smart transportation.

  • Carbon capture methods are being reviewed, but they tend not to be popular.  Pilot projects have not been very successful.
  • Nuclear energy is used by some countries, and some will continue with nuclear.
  • Europe plans to partner with other parts of the world, especially for research into renewables and related energy transition.



Speaker 3 – Junjie Zhang: Economy, Energy and the Environment - the Case of China

Jungie Zhang is an associate professor, at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego.  He specializes in economic modelling, that incorporates micro behaviour at the systems level.

Professor Zhang’s discussion focussed on China, a view from the outside, as there is considerable scepticism about official figures from China.  Here are the highlights:


  • Given its size and continuing economic development, China obviously has a huge impact on the world economy and on the world’s environment.
  • This includes both supply and demand factors for fossil fuels, and global warming.
  • There has been a enormous increase in energy use, in the recent past.  In fact, since early 2000, China has become the world’s largest energy consumer.
  • Per capita usage is still fairly low, but it has increased substantially in recent years.
  • This has primarily been driven by increasing industrial use.  Note that the U.S. has been fairly stable during the same period.
  • Household use has also gone up, though, and that extends to pretty well all income groups.  This household use is still relatively low, but that leaves lots of room for potential growth, which is likely.
  • Energy production and consumption vary geographically within China, with production being highest in the northwest, and consumption in the east.
  • Coal accounts for 66% of energy consumption, but this is coming down.
  • There are several reasons for this, but the main one is air pollution caused by burning coal, which is a huge problem in China.
  • This is a major concern of the rising middle class in China, and therefore is a politically important problem to resolve.
  • In fact, pollution is the main constraint on energy use in China right now, due to its real and significant effects on human health.




  • China is now a bigger greenhouse gas producer than the U.S. - a big part of this is its reliance on coal.
  • China’s per capita greenhouse gas production is now greater than the European Union.
  • Looking towards the future, China’s energy consumption will continue to rise, through 2020.  However, its energy use per GDP should decline.
  • Carbon emissions will continue to rise through 2020, though China has promised to turn this around by 2030.

  • Two big questions:

o   Will China maintain the level of growth it has seen in the recent past?
o   Can you trust official figures?

  • China says it will maintain economic growth of around 7%, but there is a lot of uncertainty around that number.
  • This is important, because electricity and other energy consumption tends to follow economic growth.
  • Efforts have been made by independent researchers, to validate official growth figures.  For example, satellites have been used to measure NO (nitrous oxide) concentrations, as a proxy for economic activity.  These have tended to give different results than official growth figures, sometimes indicating less growth, and sometimes more growth, than the official figures.
  • Will China continue to grow?  Yes.
  • Can China “peak” its CO2 production by 2020? No.
  • Can China “peak” its CO2 production by 2030? Probably.
  • It should be noted that China has the same tensions regarding fossil fuel versus renewables as many countries that are both producers and consumers.  For example, China seems to have slowed down its uptake of renewables recently, in order to protect fossil fuel jobs.



Speaker 4 –Thom Mason: Science and Technology for the Energy Challenge, a U.S. Perspective

Thom Mason is the director of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

Thom Mason describes himself as a “technological optimist”, but recognizes that there is a lot of work to do, in regards to the necessary transition away from fossil fuels.  He notes that the human race has solved huge problems in the past via technological breakthroughs, though, using the invention of nitrogen fixing as an example.  That staved off a food supply crisis, which appeared to be inevitable in the early 20th century. 



Below is his take on the current situation.

Constraints on the energy transition:

  • Environmental impacts.
  • National/global security impacts.
  • Economic consequences.
  • Impacts on developing countries.
  • No “single point” solution is likely, now or in the future.  There will be many solutions, all addressing different aspects of the problem.

Climate change


  • It is a difficult problem, because of the time scales involved, relative to “normal” problems.
  • Also, there is a great deal of distance (physical, social, economic) between energy use and its production.
  • But, there are huge economic, environmental, health and security risks involved in global warming.


Energy Transition


  • There is a major transformation required, in global energy systems.
  • Efficiency gains are needed.
  • Electrification of transport is needed.
  • More use of renewables, and related research, is needed.
  • Carbon sequestration - continue research but don’t rely on it ever being very significant.
  • Nuclear energy.  More might be helpful, but it comes with its own baggage, social, economic and environmental.
  • Basically, many more scientific advances are needed.
  •  Also, we need new means of translating scientific advances into practical uses.
  • The Paris Climate agreement had a “Mission Innovation” program, which should spur R&D in renewables, though it can’t solve the CO2 problem entirely.


Roundtable

The four speakers then took questions and had a bit of a round table discussion.  It was widely agreed that the problem is much more than technical in nature - social and behavioural changes have to be a large part of the solution.  It was noted that attitudes can change - for example, driving a hummer is no longer a status symbol in California.  Hybrids and Teslas have taken the place of the hummer.  It’s a small example of how social change can help address climate change.

Links/Sources









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A Sci Fi book with a Global Warming Aspect

And here’s a science fiction novel which includes plenty of action on a planet that has been devastated by a global warming episode, several centuries before the story starts (“the drowned planet”).  It’s good to occasionally take a break from real science, and read some science fiction :)




Tuesday, 24 May 2016

The Witches' Stones Book 3 - Revenge of the Catspaw, now on Amazon

The Witches' Stones Book 3 - Revenge of the Catspaw, now on Amazon

The third and final volume of The Witches' Stones sage, Revenge of the Catspaw,  is now out on Amazon.  In fact, the entire series is now available.


 

The Witches' Stones, Book 1 - Rescue from the Planet of the Amartos

Young Earth woman and spaceship mechanic, Sarah Mackenzie, has unwittingly triggered a vast source of energy, the Witches' Stones,  via her psychic abilities, of which she was unaware.  She becomes the focal point of a desperate contest between the authoritarian galactic power, known as The Organization, and the democratic Earth-based galactic power, known as The Terran Confederation.  The Organization wants to capture her, and utilize her powers to create a super-weapon; the Terra Confederation wants to prevent that at all costs.  The mysterious psychic aliens, the Witches of Kordea also become involved, as they see her as a possible threat, or a possible ally, for the safety of their own world.

A small but fast scout-ship, with its pilot and an agent of the Terra Confederation, Coryn Leigh, are sent to rescue her from a distant planet at the very edge of the galaxy, near space claimed by The Organization.  Battles, physical and mental, whirl around the young woman, as the agent and pilot strive at all costs to keep her from the clutches of the Organization.


https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008PNIRP4
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B008PNIRP4
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B008PNIRP4
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B008PNIRP4



The Witches' Stones, Book 2 - Love and Intrigue, Under the Seven Moons of Kordea

Sarah has taken refuge on the planet of Kordea, where she is also learning how to control her psychic abilities, through the tutelage of the Witches of Kordea.  Coryn Leigh has now taken up the position of Confederation diplomat to the Kordeans, but he is also charged with keeping the Mackenzie girl safe at all costs.  During their time on the planet, an attraction between them grows, though they try to deny it, to themselves and each other.

But The Organization has plans of its own, including threatening the destruction of the planet Kordea, via destabalizing the orbit of Lina, one of its many moons.  The Organization proves that its threats are in deadly earnest, so, ultimately Sarah, Coryn and the Witches of Kordea must take the fight to the enemy.  Thus is borne a dangerous mission, to  a planet where their foe has based the weapon that threatens Kordea, and ultimately, the balance of power throughout the galaxy.  Sarah and Coryn agree that the machine must be destroyed, even at the possible cost of their own lives and growing love.


https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00YGB2KC0
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00YGB2KC0
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01G2I37G2
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B00YGB2KC0

 

The Witches' Stones, Book 3 - Revenge of the Catspaw

Sarah and Coryn have become married, under the traditions of the Witches of Kordea.  But the marriage is performed by the Eldest of the most important coven, a rare honor, that comes with a blessing and a curse.  The slow working out of this blessing and curse forms the backdrop to the story.

Having come so close to their goal of enhancing their weaponry via Witches' Stone power, The Organization will not give up.  In order to lure Sarah into their trap, and thus have her become their Catspaw (someone who is forced into helping another, against their will) they need bait, and Coryn becomes the bait.  He also comes under the domination of a particularly nasty Elite of The Organization, one "Evil Evilla" Copoz.

Sarah, and a picked group of companions, must re-enter The Organization space, this time to the very heart of the empire, to rescue her husband, as he has done for her in the past.  They do so at great peril, but nothing can stop the terrible Revenge of the Catspaw.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01G2I37G2
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01G2I37G2
https://www.amazon.ca/dp/B01G2I37G2
https://www.amazon.de/dp/B01G2I37G2

Wednesday, 18 May 2016

Postmedia – Pleads for Government Assistance



Postmedia – Pleads for Government Assistance

The Globe and Mail Report, CBC news and Financial Post all reported on May 12/13 2016, that Paul Godfrey, head of Postmedia wants government assistance.  He made his pitch at a parliamentary committee meeting.

Basically, he wants:

  • More government advertising, especially directed towards his newspapers (and newspapers in general, I suppose).
  • Tax breaks to persuade businesses to spend their advertising dollars locally (i.e. in his newspapers or websites), rather than with google and the like.
  • Heritage Canada’s Aid to Publishers program to be extended to his newspapers (currently it supports magazines, primarily).

He warned that without such moves, many local news outlets will be shuttered within the next three years.  From that, we can assume he means that Postmedia needs government money fast, so that Goldentree and his other debtors don’t pull the plug on them.  Goldentree must be putting on a lot of pressure, for Godfrey to go cap in hand to the Liberal government.  Three years is probably a very optimistic time frame. 

Various members of Parliament noted that Postmedia has been quick to condemn government spending, and especially subsidies to the media, in the past.  Godfrey pointed out that what the newspaper and its pundits say, and what the newspapers (and its pundits, via their continued employment) do, are two different things.  

Godfrey noted that Postmedia is still “Canadian controlled”, even if U.S. based Goldentree Asset Manager holds its very existence in its hands, via the huge debt load that Postmedia has incurred over the past decade or so.

What can we learn from this?  Just the age old lesson, that people’s philosophical distaste for bailouts vanishes, when it is them that need the bailout.  Which is understandable, though the hypocrisy can be a bit tough to take.  Perhaps, though, Godfrey might consider a personal pay cut, to show his willingness to pitch in.  It’s a pity that nobody on the committee brought that possibility up.

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And here’s XKCD, with a symbolically satisfying comic, related to the subject (think about it).

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Speaking of bailouts, the Juan de Fuca Marine Trail was constructed to save mariners from shipwrecks, which tend to occur when bailouts don’t work.  Mr. Godfrey might want to think about the symbolism of that, while hiking the Juan de Fuca Marine Trail.  But, first he should study the trail with the help of "A Walk on the Juan de Fuca Marine Trail", available on Amazon for only 99 cents (there’s no government bailout for this bit of Canadian content, so we have to charge real money).